TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Belgium and France, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by regular time scoring, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential outcomes for the Belgium vs France UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 28, 2026, based strictly on the goal differential after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct criteria define resolution: Belgium winning by more than 2.5 goals, Belgium winning by more than 1.5 goals, France winning by more than 1.5 goals, or France winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market resolving to 'Yes' under these conditions satisfies the event, while all other scenarios resolve to 'No'. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may adjust less quickly to new information. This market, driven by real-money trading, can incorporate breaking news or shifts in sentiment more rapidly. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook implied probabilities, particularly as the event draws nearer and more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Belgium vs France match will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the competition, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the completion of the game and the final score.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Belgium or France would likely cause price movement. Unexpected changes in team formations or coaching strategies could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major upsets in other related matches or shifts in public perception regarding team performance could all contribute to volatility. Monitoring sports news and analyzing team statistics will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could move this market before Sep 28, 2026.