TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 7:35 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming Chinese Super League game between Beijing Guoan FC and Shandong Taishan FC, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 7:35 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Beijing Guoan FC" if Beijing Guoan FC score more goals than Shandong Taishan FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Beijing Guoan FC and Shandong Taishan FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Shandong Taishan FC" if Shandong Taishan FC score more goals than Beijing Guoan FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming Chinese Super League game between Beijing Guoan FC and Shandong Taishan FC, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 7:35 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Beijing Guoan FC" if Beijing Guoan FC score more goals than Shandong Taishan FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Beijing Guoan FC and Shandong Taishan FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Shandong Taishan FC" if Shandong Taishan FC score more goals than Beijing Guoan FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets are driven by trader consensus on true probabilities. This market aggregates beliefs from a decentralized pool of participants rather than a single bookmaker's model. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value or risk that traditional oddsmakers may have mispriced. Both sources offer useful signals, but they answer slightly different questions about likelihood.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism where buying and selling pressure directly moves the odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of all active traders at that moment. As new bets flow in, the price adjusts continuously to balance supply and demand. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information, and wider spreads may appear during lower-activity periods. This mechanism ensures prices remain responsive to market sentiment throughout the event window.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the second half result is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official match result reported by the league or authoritative sports data providers. Resolution occurs after the event concludes and the result is no longer subject to dispute or reversal. Traders should monitor for any official announcements or corrections that might affect the final determination. Early resolution is possible if circumstances make the outcome certain before the scheduled end time.
Key injuries, team lineup announcements, or tactical changes announced before kickoff could shift trader sentiment significantly. First-half performance and momentum heading into the second half often trigger repricing as traders update their expectations. Weather conditions, referee assignments, or other match-day developments may influence how traders assess the likely outcome. Unexpected goals or red cards during the first half would likely cause sharp moves in this market. Real-time commentary and live statistics feed into trader decisions, so any dramatic shift in match dynamics could prompt rapid position adjustments.