TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München scheduled for March 14, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET. Markets span total goals (Over/Under at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 thresholds), both teams to score, and spread betting on goal differential margins for both teams.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi apply identical resolution logic: official Bundesliga.com final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with consistent handling of postponements, cancellations, and incomplete matches.
Primary resolution logic:
Bundesliga.com official match statistics; secondary source is consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Over/Under markets resolve based on combined goals scored by both teams: Over wins if total meets or exceeds threshold (2, 3, 4, or 5 goals depending on market), Under wins if total is below threshold
- Both Teams to Score resolves Yes if each team scores at least one goal; resolves No if either team scores zero goals
- Spread markets resolve based on goal differential: Leverkusen -1.5 wins if Leverkusen wins by 2+ goals; Leverkusen -2.5 wins if Leverkusen wins by 3+ goals; Bayern -1.5 wins if Bayern wins by 2+ goals; Bayern -2.5 wins if Bayern wins by 3+ goals
- All resolution applies only to the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties are excluded
- If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed
- If match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, all markets resolve 50-50
- If match is started but not completed, resolution uses the official final score published on Bundesliga.com at the time of abandonment
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Postponement: Markets remain open and unresolved until the match is rescheduled and completed. Resolution then occurs based on the final score of the completed match.
- Cancellation without makeup: All markets in the group resolve 50-50 (split pool equally between Yes and No outcomes, or equivalent for spread markets).
- Incomplete match (started but not finished): Resolution uses the official final score as published on Bundesliga.com at the moment the match was abandoned, treating that as the final result.
- Source delay: If Bundesliga.com does not publish official statistics within 2 hours after the match concludes, resolution may use consensus from credible reporting sources (e.g., major sports news outlets).
- Extra time and penalties: These are explicitly excluded from all markets. Only the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time count toward resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the match concludes and official statistics are published on Bundesliga.com, or within 2 hours post-match if official statistics are delayed and credible reporting consensus is used instead.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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