TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC - Halftime Result
Volume:
$44,157
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC Champions League match scheduled for March 11, 2026. Three mutually exclusive outcomes are tracked: Leverkusen leading at halftime, a draw at halftime, or Arsenal leading at halftime. Resolution depends on the official score after 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Leverkusen Win Yes/No, Draw Yes/No, Arsenal Win Yes/No), while Kalshi's single market resolves Yes for all three possible outcomes, rendering it non-discriminative and fundamentally unresolvable as a predictive instrument.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market as specified—it will resolve Yes regardless of halftime result. Use Polymarket's three binary markets for actual price discovery. Request clarification from Kalshi on whether this is a data entry error or if the market structure was intentionally designed as a guaranteed payout.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets covering all mutually exclusive halftime outcomes. Each market resolves Yes only if its specific outcome occurs (Leverkusen lead, Draw, or Arsenal lead), and No otherwise. Resolution source is official governing body statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. Cancellation without makeup resolves all three to No.
- Kalshi: Single market with three conditional statements, each triggering Yes resolution. Resolves Yes if Arsenal wins first half, Yes if Tie occurs, or Yes if Leverkusen wins first half. No explicit No condition or cancellation clause provided. This structure guarantees Yes settlement regardless of match outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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