TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 50K
- Kalshi
Above 50K - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 27, 2026
Closed: Sep 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Miley Cyrus's album "Bass Persuades" during a specific week, measuring how many album equivalent units it sells in the U.S. The outcome depends on whether the sales surpass various thresholds, providing insight into the album's commercial success during that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for album equivalent units sold by Miley Cyrus's "Bass Persuades" during the tracking week of September 18, 2026, to September 24, 2026, in the U.S. Each market corresponds to a specific sales threshold, ranging from 50,000 to 500,000 units. If the album exceeds any given threshold, the associated market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All outcomes are determined by data reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Bass Persuades’ album performance. While many music industry analysts are offering predictions based on streaming data and pre-sale numbers, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing methodologies and the ability of the market to rapidly incorporate new information as it becomes available. It’s important to consider both sources when forming your own assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different AEU outcomes at any time. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by news, social media sentiment, and any information that impacts expectations for the album's first-week sales.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week album equivalent unit sales figures for The Bass Persuades’ album are verifiable from credible public reporting. These figures will be sourced from industry standard data providers and will represent the total number of units sold across all formats, including physical albums, digital downloads, and streaming equivalents. The market will settle to the outcome that most accurately reflects the reported AEU total.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected positive or negative reviews from major music publications could influence consumer demand. A viral moment on social media featuring the album or the band could drive increased streaming and sales. Major media appearances or promotional events could also impact the album’s visibility. Finally, any news regarding distribution challenges or unexpected competition from other album releases could also cause shifts in the market’s pricing as traders adjust their expectations.
