TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 10:14 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Sciahbasi and Juan Martin in the Bari, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Sciahbasi' if Matteo Sciahbasi advances against Juan Martin. This market will resolve to 'Juan Martin' if Juan Martin advances against Matteo Sciahbasi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Sciahbasi and Juan Martin in the Bari, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Sciahbasi' if Matteo Sciahbasi advances against Juan Martin. This market will resolve to 'Juan Martin' if Juan Martin advances against Matteo Sciahbasi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, and may be influenced by public betting patterns. This market, however, represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders who have ‘skin in the game.’ While sportsbook odds can be useful as a reference point, they may diverge from the probabilities expressed in this market, particularly if prediction market participants have access to unique or specialized information about the Sciahbasi vs Martin match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome of the Sciahbasi vs Martin match, and the price of these shares determines the implied probability of that outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders attempting to capitalize on perceived mispricings or new information regarding the match. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Sciahbasi vs Martin match, as determined by the governing body of the sport. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trustworthy sources to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out according to their holdings in the winning outcome’s shares, reflecting the final result of the match.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected developments in the players’ recent performance could shift the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in the sport, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create momentum and drive price movements, reflecting a change in overall market sentiment regarding the Sciahbasi vs Martin match.