TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Barcelona vs. FC Bayern Munchen
Volume:
$99,783
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Barcelona and FC Bayern Munchen will compete in a Euroleague basketball match scheduled for April 17 at 2:30 PM ET. The market resolves based on the final outcome of the game, with specific provisions for postponements and cancellations. This is a straightforward head-to-head binary sports event with no ambiguity regarding the competing teams or league.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both outcomes (Barcelona wins AND Bayern Munich wins) resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a guaranteed arbitrage or payout failure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken—it resolves Yes regardless of the actual game outcome. Polymarket is the only usable venue for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary winner-take-all logic: Barcelona win resolves to Barcelona, Bayern Munich win resolves to FC Bayern Munchen. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) clauses. Source: Euroleague Basketball official.
- Kalshi: Logical contradiction in resolution rules: states 'If FC Barcelona wins...then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Bayern Munich wins...then resolves to Yes.' Both mutually exclusive outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), violating binary market structure and making settlement impossible.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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