TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 9:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Barbados and Saint Lucia. Each market evaluates different goal-differential thresholds to determine the outcome based on which team wins and by how many goals they win. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential of the Barbados vs Saint Lucia professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: Barbados winning by more than 2.5 goals, Barbados winning by more than 1.5 goals, Saint Lucia winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Saint Lucia winning by more than 2.5 goals. If the specified condition for a given market is met, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from the calculation of the final score for resolution purposes. All markets are independent, and each has its own specific criteria for resolution. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. Observing these differences can be insightful, as both represent informed, but distinct, assessments of the event’s probability.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Barbados vs Saint Lucia cricket match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific result, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Barbados vs Saint Lucia cricket match, specifically which team wins by the specified spread. The final result will be determined by the official score reported by the governing body for the match, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or weather forecasts impacting playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding matches or shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could also drive price movements. Major upsets in related cricket matches or broader sporting events might also indirectly affect trading activity and the overall assessment of probabilities in this market.