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$101.8b

24H VOL:

$174,422,879

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,202,350,114

181,476

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18,292

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MATCHED EVENTS:

1,332

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

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56%

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Bank of Mexico Decision in August?
Economics
kalshi
polymarket

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

Total volume:
$128,314
Volume 24h:
$2,344
55%
Liquidity:
$38,761
13%
Open interest:
$40,778
0%
PredictionHero
No change 88%
polymarket
Maintain current rate 100%
kalshi
25 bps decrease 10%
polymarket
May 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026020406080100

Time left: 13d:22h:16m

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?

88%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88.7¢ buys you 113 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $113 | Net Profit: $13 Multiplier: 1.13x | ROI: 13% High Projected APY: 2,174% 13 days to resolution
kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A
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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether the Bank of Mexico will maintain its current interest rate at the August 2026 governing board meeting. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows a 96.0% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady. The resolution source is the official Bank of Mexico policy announcement following the August 2026 meeting. Watch for any inflation data releases or economic indicators in the weeks leading up to the August 6, 2026 decision date, as these typically influence the central bank's rate-setting deliberations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Meeting date mismatch (Kalshi references June; Polymarket references August 2026) and scope difference (Kalshi is binary any-action; Polymarket offers granular outcome-specific markets with detailed rounding and edge-case rules).Hero tip: Confirm which meeting date you are trading on. Kalshi's June meeting and Polymarket's August 2026 meeting are separate events. Polymarket's markets are outcome-specific and mutually exclusive; Kalshi's is a simple binary on whether any action occurs. Use Polymarket if you have a directional view on the magnitude of change; use Kalshi if you only care whether a decision is made.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market on Bank of Mexico action at June governing board meeting. Resolves Yes for any of seven actions: Cut 25bps, Cut 50bps, Cut more than 50bps, Hike 25bps, Hike 50bps, Hike more than 50bps, or Maintain current rate. All conditions lead to Yes, making this a market on whether any decision is announced.
  • Polymarket: Five mutually exclusive outcome-specific markets on August 2026 meeting (scheduled August 6, 2026): 25bp increase, 50bp+ increase, 25bp decrease, 50bp+ decrease, or no change. Includes explicit rounding rules (sub-25bp rounds to 25bp; over-25bp rounds to nearest 25bp away from zero), postponement handling (resolves based on postponed meeting if before next scheduled meeting), and cancellation handling (resolves to No Change if cancelled or postponed beyond next meeting).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Mexico at its June 2026 Governing Board meeting. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the "No change" market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Bank of Mexico's August 2026 interest rate decision. It tracks whether the central bank will maintain, raise, or cut rates at its governing board meeting. The combined market has processed $128,314 in total volume, with $8,363 traded in the last 24 hours. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, traders gain a cross-market consensus view of monetary policy expectations and can identify arbitrage opportunities or platform-specific sentiment shifts.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders and often diverge from traditional analyst surveys. Markets price in tail risks, geopolitical shocks, and inflation surprises that formal forecasts may underweight. The Bank of Mexico Decision in August market aggregates these distributed expectations across Polymarket and Kalshi, creating a dynamic benchmark. Comparing market odds to published economist forecasts reveals whether traders are pricing in tighter or looser policy than the consensus, offering insight into hidden market conviction about inflation, peso weakness, or global rate pressures.

The market resolves on Aug 6, 2026, following the Bank of Mexico's official announcement of its August 2026 governing board decision. Resolution hinges on the central bank's communiqué detailing the new policy rate and forward guidance. Markets track whether the decision matches pre-announcement expectations or surprises traders. The outcome is binary or multi-outcome depending on the platform's contract structure, capturing whether rates hold steady, rise, or fall. Official central bank statements and press conferences provide the definitive source for settlement.

Key catalysts include U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions, Mexican inflation data, peso exchange-rate moves, and geopolitical shocks affecting capital flows. Wage growth, core inflation trends, and energy prices directly influence Bank of Mexico policy calculus. Forward guidance from central bank officials and minutes from prior meetings shift market expectations. Global recession fears, commodity volatility, and cross-border credit conditions also matter. Economic data surprises—employment, GDP, or trade figures—can rapidly reprrice the odds. Traders monitor Mexican government fiscal policy and external debt dynamics as secondary drivers of monetary tightening or easing bias.

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