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191,103

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Bank of Korea decision in April?
Economics
polymarket
kalshi

Bank of Korea decision in April?

Volume:
$192,402
PredictionHero
Maintain current rate 100%
kalshi
No Change 100%
polymarket
Increase 0.05%
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026020406080100

Closed: Apr 9, 9:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks whether the Bank of Korea will decrease, maintain, or increase its base rate at the April 10, 2026 monetary policy meeting. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the outcome of this single official central bank decision, with resolution tied to the Bank of Korea's published policy statement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve on the identical underlying event—the Bank of Korea's April 10, 2026 base rate decision—with Polymarket's three binary outcomes and Kalshi's five categorical outcomes covering the same decision space without contradiction.Primary resolution logic: Bank of Korea official Monetary Policy Board meeting announcement and policy statement released after April 10, 2026 meeting

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered by the Bank of Korea's official policy statement following the April 10, 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting
  • The base rate decision is classified into one of five outcomes: Hike >25bps, Hike 1-25bps, No Change, Cut 1-25bps, Cut >25bps
  • Polymarket's Decrease market resolves YES if outcome is Cut 1-25bps or Cut >25bps
  • Polymarket's No Change market resolves YES if outcome is No Change
  • Polymarket's Increase market resolves YES if outcome is Hike 1-25bps or Hike >25bps
  • Kalshi's market resolves YES for whichever single action category the Bank of Korea takes
  • If no rate decision is issued by the next scheduled meeting, Polymarket defaults to No Change; Kalshi's categorical structure ensures one outcome always applies

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed or Postponed Meeting: If the April 10, 2026 meeting is postponed or cancelled, resolution waits for the rescheduled meeting announcement. Polymarket's fallback is No Change if no decision by the next scheduled meeting; Kalshi resolves on the actual decision whenever announced.
  • Fractional Basis Point Moves: If the Bank of Korea adjusts the rate by a non-standard increment (e.g., 12bps), it falls into the 1-25bps bracket for both platforms.
  • Simultaneous Policy Actions: If the Bank of Korea announces multiple policy tools (e.g., rate cut + reserve requirement change), resolution focuses solely on the base rate change, as specified by both platforms.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon publication of the Bank of Korea's official policy statement for the April 10, 2026 meeting, typically within hours of the meeting conclusion. Polymarket allows resolution as soon as the statement is issued; Kalshi follows the same timeline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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