TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 20, 2:10 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks individual player performance in total bases during the Baltimore vs Los Angeles Dodgers game on June 19, 2026. Total bases are calculated by counting singles as 1, doubles as 2, triples as 3, and home runs as 4, providing a measure of offensive productivity.
Settlement is based on each player's total bases recorded during the game, contingent on their participation status. Players must be in the starting lineup and record at least one plate appearance for the market to settle on actual performance. If a player is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market resolves to fair market price. Players who enter the game as pinch hitters do not count toward the market. If a starting player does not record a plate appearance, the market also resolves to fair market price. Total bases are accumulated from all at-bats during the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different pricing mechanisms and participant bases. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on information flow and trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where professional oddsmakers and decentralized traders disagree, offering insights into which side holds stronger conviction about total bases outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different total bases outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share's price reflects the collective probability estimate of all active traders at any given moment. As new information emerges—injury reports, lineup changes, or weather updates—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This dynamic pricing ensures the market continuously incorporates the latest signals and reflects evolving expectations about how many total bases will be recorded in the Baltimore-Los Angeles matchup.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once the game concludes and the final total bases count is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and fairness. Traders holding positions aligned with the verified result receive payouts, while those on the incorrect side lose their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, reflecting the actual statistical outcome of the event rather than subjective interpretation.
Several catalysts can shift this market significantly before Jun 20, 2026. Lineup announcements—particularly confirmations or injuries involving key power hitters—often trigger sharp price moves. Weather forecasts matter too; wind direction and temperature affect ball carry distance and overall offensive output. Pitching matchups and bullpen availability can influence scoring pace and total bases accumulation. Breaking news about player health, trades, or unexpected roster changes may also prompt rapid repricing. Traders monitor these developments closely to adjust positions ahead of the game.