TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on whether they achieve certain passing yard thresholds. It allows participants to speculate on players' potential outputs in a real-world contest.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified quarterback achieves a particular passing yard threshold during the designated game. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market settles according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both quarterbacks involved in the matchup.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in analytical approaches. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or as public sentiment shifts regarding the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual passing yards will fall within a specific range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by factors like news regarding player injuries, weather forecasts, and overall betting activity, all influencing traders’ expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage statistics from the Baltimore vs Dallas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual passing yards achieved during the game, and contracts corresponding to the correct yardage range will pay out. Traders who accurately predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution, while those who bet on incorrect ranges will forfeit their investment.