TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match. These metrics offer insight into the offensive strategies and execution of both teams throughout the contest.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the named quarterback—Dak Prescott or Lamar Jackson—in the Baltimore vs Dallas Professional Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. For any market, if the specified quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined immediately before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is later nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold: Dak Prescott markets resolve to 'Yes' if he records 21+, 26+, or 31+ completions, while Lamar Jackson markets resolve to 'Yes' if he records 15+, 20+, or 25+ completions. Thresholds represent success conditions only; no market considers partial completions, interceptions, or other statistical categories. All markets operate independently, meaning resolution of one does not affect others. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals trading contracts. If a large number of traders believe a specific outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of that outcome will rise in this market. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of crowd-sourced predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of passing completions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final outcome. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, analysis, and shifts in sentiment regarding the potential performance of the quarterbacks in the game.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing completion count from the Baltimore versus Dallas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning contract. Traders who correctly predicted the total passing completions will receive a payout based on the final price of their contract at resolution. It’s important to monitor the game and official statistics as the event unfolds to understand how the outcome is being determined.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that could favor a passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated betting lines from sportsbooks may also shift sentiment. Finally, any significant news about team strategies or play-calling tendencies could move the market as traders adjust their expectations for the total passing completions.