TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 5:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which player or team scores the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. Participants can speculate on individual players, teams' defensive units, or the possibility of no touchdown being scored at all.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player, team defensive unit, or 'No Touchdown' condition achieves the first touchdown in the designated game. If a participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to its pre-game fair market price. Once a participant takes at least one snap, resolution depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns occur during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other participant markets resolve to No. All markets are independent, and resolution is strictly based on the timing of the first touchdown without regard to later game events or penalties nullifying snaps.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially react to major news, this market can incorporate a wider range of factors and nuanced opinions, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices are constantly adjusting based on supply and demand, creating a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as game day nears.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who is officially credited with scoring the first touchdown in the game, as determined by official game statistics, will be the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game records and any subsequent reviews or adjustments made by the relevant league authorities. Any disputes regarding the official scoring record will be resolved using publicly available information.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players like the starting quarterback or top wide receivers, would likely cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions that favor a running or passing game, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or matchups could lead to adjustments in the market. Even pre-game analysis from prominent sports analysts could sway opinions and affect trading activity in this market.