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Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$6,363

Baltimore -1.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Baltimore -1.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 11:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Baltimore -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,675
N/A
N/A
$2,333
Settled
No
kalshi

Seattle -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,761
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Baltimore -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
$1,130
Settled
No
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Seattle -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$798
N/A
N/A
$734
Settled
No
polymarket

Seattle Mariners

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Markets track which team is ahead after exactly 5 complete innings, including tie scenarios.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-differential thresholds (1.5+ and 2.5+ runs) with overlapping conditions, while Polymarket uses a categorical three-way outcome (lead-based: Baltimore, Seattle, or Draw). These measure different things and cannot be directly reconciled.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. Kalshi bets on margin magnitude; Polymarket bets on who is ahead. A 1-run Baltimore lead resolves No on Kalshi but Baltimore on Polymarket. A tie resolves No on Kalshi but Draw on Polymarket. Verify Kalshi's intent on the overlapping 1.5 and 2.5 thresholds before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No based on run differential. Conditions 1-4 state: Yes if Seattle wins by 2.5+, Baltimore wins by 2.5+, Baltimore wins by 1.5+, or Seattle wins by 1.5+. Conditions 3 and 4 (1.5+ threshold) make conditions 1 and 2 (2.5+ threshold) redundant. Unclear which threshold is operative or if both apply.
  • Polymarket: Three-way categorical outcome: Baltimore Orioles (if ahead after 5 innings), Seattle Mariners (if ahead after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied). Resolution is based purely on who is leading, with no run-differential threshold. Tied games explicitly resolve to Draw.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for June 16 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the fifth inning of the Baltimore vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT. Outcomes are structured around specific winning margins: Seattle winning by more than 2.5 runs, Seattle winning by more than 1.5 runs, Baltimore winning by more than 1.5 runs, or Baltimore winning by more than 2.5 runs. Each outcome resolves to Yes only if the specified team achieves the required margin of victory through five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader supply and demand, whereas traditional sportsbooks set lines based on risk management and sharp-money positioning. Prediction market prices often reflect longer-term consensus and retail sentiment, while sportsbooks adjust rapidly to large bets and closing action. For early-week matchups, this market may show wider spreads than sportsbooks due to lower initial liquidity, but as the game approaches, convergence typically occurs. Comparing the two reveals whether public prediction traders are pricing in information sportsbooks have already absorbed.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under distinct market designs and user incentives. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket uses a continuous automated market maker, attracting traders seeking deep liquidity and low slippage, while Kalshi employs order-book mechanics that can reward patient limit-order placement. User demographics, fee structures, and platform-specific promotional activity also drive wedges between prices. Additionally, each platform may interpret outcome framing slightly differently—one focusing on a team lead after five innings, the other on run-margin thresholds—creating legitimate pricing gaps that reflect real differences in contract design rather than pure arbitrage.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, bullpen injury updates, and weather conditions affecting ball carry and visibility. Lineup changes, particularly the absence of star hitters, can shift early-inning scoring expectations significantly. Pre-game betting action at sportsbooks often telegraphs sharp money flow, which prediction traders monitor closely. Live game movement—early runs, defensive miscues, or unexpected pitching changes—will drive rapid repricing in the final minutes before the fifth inning concludes. Monitoring team news and real-time game feeds is essential for capturing edge before this market settles.