TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks how decisively either team wins the final quarter of a football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts. It focuses solely on the performance difference in the last quarter, ignoring the overall game outcome or any overtime periods.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the fourth quarter of the designated BAL Ravens vs IND Colts Pro Football game, excluding overtime. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold that determines whether the outcome resolves as 'Yes.' If the Baltimore Ravens win the fourth quarter by exceeding the specified margin—ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points—the respective 'BAL Ravens wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes.' Conversely, if the Indianapolis Colts win the fourth quarter by more than the designated margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'IND Colts wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored during regulation play in the fourth quarter count; overtime points are excluded from all calculations. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, allowing multiple markets to resolve as 'Yes' if the point differential meets or exceeds several thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the Ravens will cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from what sportsbooks are offering. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional odds, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, the price of contracts for the Ravens-Colts 4th quarter spread is determined by supply and demand. Traders are constantly posting bids (prices they are willing to buy at) and asks (prices they are willing to sell at). The market price fluctuates until a buyer and seller agree on a trade. This process creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different point spreads occurring in the 4th quarter. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more volume traded, the more confidence there is in the displayed price.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 4th quarter of the Ravens-Colts game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official NFL results, determining whether the Ravens won the 4th quarter by more than 1.5 points. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor the game and official results as the resolution date approaches.
Changes in the perceived likelihood of a Ravens or Colts victory will be the primary driver of movement in this market. This includes updates on player injuries, coaching decisions, and even pre-game analysis from sports commentators. Significant in-game events, such as a key interception or a long touchdown run, will also cause rapid price adjustments. Unexpected shifts in momentum during the game, or even a controversial referee call, could also lead to notable changes in the market price leading up to the resolution around Sep 13, 2026.