TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
polymarket
limitless
kalshi

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Volume:
$1,025,989

Naomi Osaka

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:15 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Naomi Osaka

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$436,926
N/A
N/A
$275,551
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$434,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Bad Homburg: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,077
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ekaterina Alexandrova

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150,465
N/A
N/A
$104,942
Settled
No
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$443
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers the professional tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Ekaterina Alexandrova at the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg Open, originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 09:03 UTC (5:00 AM ET). Markets span match winner, set winners, game totals across sets, and match completion status.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Walkover and pre-match withdrawal scenarios are treated differently across platforms. Kalshi and Limitless accept any official winner declaration (including walkovers), while Polymarket's match winner market explicitly resolves walkovers to 50-50, though retirements after play begins are treated as valid outcomes.Hero tip: Monitor official WTA withdrawal announcements in the 24 hours before the scheduled June 25, 2026 start time. A pre-match walkover will pay out to the advancing player on Kalshi and Limitless, but resolve 50-50 on Polymarket. Retirements or defaults after play begins are treated consistently as valid outcomes across all platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either player wins after a ball has been played. No explicit exclusion for walkovers or retirements; any official winner declaration after play begins is valid. Key quote: 'If Naomi Osaka wins the Osaka vs Alexandrova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Limitless: Resolves to the official winner declared by the event, explicitly including walkovers, retirements, withdrawals, defaults, and disqualifications. Key quote: 'A player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
  • Polymarket (Match Winner): Resolves to the advancing player if the match begins and one player retires/defaults/is disqualified. However, if the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before start), it resolves to 50-50. Key quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.' Retirements after play begins resolve to the advancing player.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Bad Homburg Open, originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Ekaterina Alexandrova. This market will resolve to 'Ekaterina Alexandrova' if Ekaterina Alexandrova advances against Naomi Osaka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Osaka vs Alexandrova quarterfinal match at the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg tournament, contingent upon a ball being played to confirm the match occurs. If the match does not begin due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and settles after the rescheduled match concludes, provided this occurs within two weeks of the original scheduled date.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Naomi Osaka" if Naomi Osaka defeats Ekaterina Alexandrova in their Bad Homburg match originally scheduled for June 25, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "Ekaterina Alexandrova" if Ekaterina Alexandrova defeats Naomi Osaka. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders set odds through continuous order flow rather than oddsmakers adjusting lines for profit margin. Sportsbooks embed a built-in edge and limit position sizes; prediction markets reward accurate forecasting with direct payouts. This market's current odds reflect aggregated trader belief, often converging toward true probability as the event approaches. Comparing these odds to sportsbook lines can reveal mispricings, though prediction markets typically tighten closer to the event date.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and market mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, and differences in order-book depth or fee structures can cause temporary price gaps. Monitoring both venues helps you identify which platform offers better value and whether consensus is strengthening or fragmenting as new information emerges.

Key catalysts include recent match results, player injury or illness announcements, surface conditions at the venue, and betting-market activity on external sportsbooks. Shifts in player ranking, coaching changes, or public statements about form or motivation can also trigger repricing. As the match date approaches, any news affecting either player's fitness or mental state will likely drive sharp movement. Watch for late-breaking updates from official tour sources and monitor how Polymarket and Kalshi react to new information.