TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 27M
- Kalshi
Above 27M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 20, 2026
Closed: Sep 20, 2:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Bad Bunny's YouTube view performance on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for global daily views. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome based on whether the views exceed the specified amount. The resolution uses data from a New York IP address to ensure consistency.
Kalshi
The event consists of multiple markets, each defined by a specific threshold of global daily views that Bad Bunny must exceed on YouTube for the market to resolve to 'Yes' on September 18, 2026. All markets share a common resolution methodology: view counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address to ensure geographic consistency. Each market’s primary rule checks if the artist’s global daily views surpass a predetermined numerical threshold, ranging incrementally from 22 million to 34 million. Secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube data are purely descriptive. The structure allows participants to speculate on the likelihood of Bad Bunny achieving various levels of viewership, with higher thresholds representing more ambitious performance benchmarks.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a certain range of views, this market will show whether traders agree, disagree, or assign different probabilities to various outcomes. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market believes analysts are over- or underestimating the potential viewership for Bad Bunny’s performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on new information and changing sentiment surrounding Bad Bunny’s expected viewership.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official view count for Bad Bunny’s performance on September 18, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from official sources tracking views, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. The final price of contracts will reflect the actual view count achieved, allowing traders to realize their profits or losses based on the accuracy of their predictions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding Bad Bunny's promotional activities, album releases, or tour announcements could influence expectations. Changes in the overall music landscape, competitor performances, or major cultural events happening around September 18, 2026, could also shift the market. Unexpected media coverage, viral trends, or even changes in streaming platform algorithms could all impact the perceived likelihood of different view counts, leading to fluctuations in trading activity and price adjustments.
