TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 28.5M
- Kalshi
Above 28.5M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Will Bad Bunny have above 28.5M daily views at any point during October 2026?
$
Description
This event tracks whether Bad Bunny's YouTube views will surpass various thresholds during October 2026. The outcome depends on the artist's global daily view count as measured from a New York IP address, providing a real-time gauge of audience engagement across platforms.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Bad Bunny's global daily YouTube view count throughout October 2026. Each market specifies a unique view count threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the artist's views exceed that threshold at any point during the month. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to ensure consistency. While each threshold is evaluated independently, the consistent methodology across all markets ensures comparability. The markets are strictly observational and do not imply endorsement by YouTube or any affiliation between YouTube and the event organizer. Global daily views are accessible via YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a specific outcome with high confidence, we might see similar odds reflected here. However, discrepancies can arise if traders anticipate unforeseen events or have access to unique data points, leading to a different assessment of probabilities. This comparison can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and liquidity, as shown by the trading volume, also influence price discovery. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the highest daily view count for Bad Bunny’s content across major platforms during the month of October 2026 will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. The precise methodology for calculating the daily view count will be clearly defined prior to resolution to avoid ambiguity.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Bad Bunny’s new music releases, tour dates, or collaborations would likely impact trading activity. Shifts in his social media engagement strategy or changes in the popularity of the platforms where his content is shared could also be influential. Unexpected events, such as controversies or viral moments, could also cause a rapid reassessment of probabilities. Furthermore, broader trends in music consumption and the overall entertainment landscape could affect the perceived likelihood of different view count scenarios.
