TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether the Puerto Rican artist Bad Bunny achieves specific daily view thresholds on YouTube during a defined week in October 2026. Each threshold represents a progressively higher number of global daily views that need to be met or exceeded on any single day within the specified timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily YouTube views achieved by Bad Bunny between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. For any of the defined thresholds—ranging from above 22 million to above 34 million global daily views—if Bad Bunny reaches or exceeds that specific threshold on any day within the period, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' View counts are determined using YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location and values displayed from a New York IP address. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold is assessed separately, and none of the markets have endorsement from YouTube, with references to YouTube being purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors than individual analyst predictions. While analysts might focus on specific metrics like social media engagement or past performance, this market aggregates diverse perspectives, leading to potentially more accurate forecasts. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than experts, or where analysts haven't fully accounted for certain variables.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular view count is likely, the price of the corresponding contract increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity are influenced by the number of participants and the volume of trading activity, providing a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by Bad Bunny across all major video platforms (e.g., YouTube, TikTok) between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. The specific data source used to verify the view count will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available upon resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Bad Bunny’s content releases, such as new music videos or collaborations, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected social media trends or viral challenges featuring his music could also drive increased viewership. Furthermore, any news related to Bad Bunny’s public appearances or promotional activities could influence market sentiment. Shifts in the overall popularity of video-sharing platforms themselves could also play a role in how traders assess the potential for record-breaking view counts.
