TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
11-12m
- Polymarket
11-12m - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Backrooms" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Backrooms" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst estimates. While studio analysts and box office forecasters rely on historical comps, marketing spend, and audience demographics, prediction markets incorporate real-time sentiment and betting activity. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket to published forecasts from industry analysts reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish than consensus. This gap can highlight undervalued or overvalued outcomes relative to expert opinion.
On Polymarket, the "Backrooms" 3rd weekend box office is priced through outcome shares that reflect trader conviction about specific box office ranges. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades at a price between 0 and 1, where the price directly represents the market's implied probability. Traders buy shares in outcomes they believe will occur and sell those they think won't, with prices adjusting in real time based on order flow. The outcome with the highest price reflects the market favorite, while lower-priced outcomes represent longer shots.
The market resolves on Jun 15, 2026, after the 3rd weekend box office figures are finalized and publicly reported. Resolution is determined by official domestic box office data for the specified weekend period. The exact outcome category that wins depends on which box office range the actual 3rd weekend total falls into. Traders should monitor industry sources and studio announcements as the resolution date approaches to track final performance metrics.
Key catalysts include early reviews and critic scores, which shape audience perception and opening weekend demand. Social media buzz and fan reactions to trailers and marketing campaigns can significantly shift expectations. Competing releases and overall box office trends during that weekend window matter, as do any production news or casting announcements. Real-world events affecting theater attendance, weather patterns, or unexpected marketing pushes by the studio can all influence final 3rd weekend performance and move market odds accordingly.
