TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Shimizu S-Pulse - More Markets
Volume:
$20,055
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a J1 League soccer match between Avispa Fukuoka and Shimizu S-Pulse scheduled for March 18, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. Markets span multiple spread thresholds, over/under total goals, both-teams-to-score, and match outcome (win/tie/loss) across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket spread markets use binary forced-choice logic that implicitly handles ties by defaulting to the non-spread-meeting team, while Kalshi explicitly recognizes tie as a distinct valid resolution outcome. This creates different effective payoff structures for tie scenarios.Hero Tip:
When pricing Polymarket spreads, factor in tie probability—a tie will resolve against the spread team. On Kalshi, tie is a standalone Yes outcome. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if tie probability is mispriced on either platform.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: All markets (spreads, over/unders, both-teams-to-score) resolve to official jleague.jp final score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Spread markets are binary: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) resolves Yes only if Shimizu wins by 3+; otherwise resolves to Avispa Fukuoka. Ties are not an explicit outcome; they resolve to the team that did not meet the spread threshold. If game is canceled with no makeup, all markets resolve 50-50.
- Kalshi: Three distinct markets, each resolving Yes if their condition is met: Tie wins (Yes if match ends tied), Shimizu wins (Yes if Shimizu wins), Avispa wins (Yes if Avispa wins). Resolution is based on official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Tie is treated as a valid, independent outcome, not a default fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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