TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Austria and Kosovo, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential outcomes of the Austria vs Kosovo UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for September 27, 2026, based on the goal differential between the two teams after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct conditions are considered: Austria winning by more than 2.5 goals, Austria winning by more than 1.5 goals, Kosovo winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Kosovo winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the respective associated market resolves to 'Yes'. Each condition operates independently, allowing for multiple markets to resolve positively depending on the match's final score. The resolution is strictly based on the official match result, and Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league or its associated entities, with all trademarks and brand names remaining the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations, and the market may adjust as new information becomes available. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than traditional betting venues, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Austria vs Kosovo match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The current price represents the collective assessment of all participants trading on the platform.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Austria vs Kosovo match, as reported by a trusted sports data provider, will determine the winning contracts. Resolution will occur after the conclusion of the match and official results are available. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and fairness for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Austria or Kosovo would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups, or even significant pre-match commentary from analysts, could all contribute to shifts in the price of contracts. Major upsets in related matches or broader football news may also have an effect on this market.