TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Austin FC vs. Minnesota United FC
Volume:
$262,875
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Austin FC and Minnesota United FC scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets are offered across Polymarket and Kalshi, with separate binary contracts for each team's win and draw outcomes on Polymarket, versus a single tri-state contract on Kalshi.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on how cancellation (with no make-up game) resolves. Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on cancellation, while its win markets resolve NO. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation and appears to require an actual match outcome.Hero Tip:
Monitor official MLS communications for any game postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket draw positions will resolve YES while win positions resolve NO—creating a one-way payout asymmetry. Kalshi's behavior in this scenario is undefined; contact support for clarification before the event date.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Minnesota United FC win (YES if Minnesota wins, NO otherwise), Austin FC win (YES if Austin wins, NO otherwise), and Draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise). On cancellation with no make-up: win markets resolve NO, draw market resolves YES. Postponement keeps markets open until game completion. Resolution scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Single tri-state market: resolves YES if Tie, Austin win, or Minnesota win occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implicitly requires an actual match outcome to resolve YES; cancellation behavior undefined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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