TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 10:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Aucas and Macara in the Ecuador LigaPro league. Bettors can speculate on whether Aucas, Macara, or neither team (a tie) will win the match within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The resolution depends strictly on the full-time result, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Aucas vs Macara professional Ecuador LigaPro soccer match scheduled for September 20, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for the Aucas market occurs if Aucas wins the match within regular time. Similarly, a 'Yes' outcome for the Macara market occurs if Macara wins within regular time. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the match concludes in a draw after regular time. All markets exclude extra time or penalty shootout results. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets are independent of any official affiliations with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, while sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and profit margins. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could signal an opportunity for arbitrage – where traders can profit by betting on both venues. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect the probability of an outcome *as perceived by traders*, which isn't always the same as the 'true' probability.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Aucas vs Macara match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market remains responsive to the latest developments and provides a real-time assessment of the likely result.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Aucas vs Macara match as reported by a recognized sports authority. Any potential postponements or cancellations will be factored into the resolution process, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome for all participants. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the event approaches and be prepared for potential adjustments to the resolution timeline.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could all impact trader sentiment and shift the odds. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as venue changes or rule modifications, would also likely cause movement. Major upsets in other related matches or broader sporting events could also indirectly affect this market, as traders reassess their overall expectations. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market.