TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Atlante FC vs. CF América
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Atlante FC vs. CF América?

Volume:
$1,063,749

Draw (Atlante FC vs. CF América)

 - Polymarket

Draw (Atlante FC vs. CF América) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 25, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 3:14 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (Atlante FC vs. CF América)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$91,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

CF América

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$452,111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

America wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$296,046
N/A
N/A
$129,657
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlante FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$110,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Queretaro wins by more than 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,782
N/A
N/A
$31,414
Settled
No
kalshi

America wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,306
N/A
N/A
$30,953
Settled
No
kalshi

Queretaro wins by more than 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,056
N/A
N/A
$5,691
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Liga MX soccer match between Atlante FC and CF América, focusing on whether the game will end in a draw. The aggregated consensus probability for a draw stands at 100.0%, drawn from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution details available at https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. The match is scheduled for July 24, 2026, and the final result will be confirmed by the end of the event window on July 25, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms reference entirely different soccer matches: Kalshi covers Queretaro vs America on July 18, 2026, while Polymarket covers Atlante FC vs CF América on July 24, 2026. This is a fundamental match identity mismatch, not a minor rule variation.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are fungible or correlated. They are separate Liga MX fixtures on different dates with different teams. Treat each market independently and verify the opponent team and match date before trading. Polymarket's cancellation-to-draw rule for the draw market is also non-standard and creates additional settlement risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four markets on Queretaro vs America (Jul 18, 2026) using goal differential thresholds: Queretaro >2.5 goals, Queretaro >1.5 goals, America >1.5 goals, America >2.5 goals. All settle Yes/No based on final margin after 90 min + stoppage time. Key quote: 'Queretaro wins by more than 2.5 goals' and 'America wins by more than 1.5 goals'.
  • Polymarket: Three markets on Atlante FC vs CF América (Jul 24, 2026) using binary outcomes: Atlante win, Draw, América win. All measure 90 min + stoppage time only. Unique rule: if canceled with no makeup, draw market resolves Yes (non-standard). Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw market only).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Friday, July 24, 2026 between Atlante FC and CF América.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the margin of victory in the Queretaro vs America Liga MX match on July 18, 2026, measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (extra time and penalties are excluded). Outcomes are structured around specific goal differentials, with each outcome resolving to Yes if one team wins by more than the specified margin. The spread thresholds allow for assessment of decisive victories by either team.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect what traders actually believe will happen based on supply and demand. This market's prices come from peer-to-peer trading rather than a bookmaker's spread, which can lead to sharper, more reactive pricing during breaking news or shifts in team form. Comparing this market to major sportsbooks can reveal where public perception and trader conviction diverge most.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, which naturally produces price variation even for the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also frame their outcome categories slightly differently—one might emphasize goal margin while the other focuses on match winner—leading traders to express conviction through different contracts. Platform-specific fees, settlement rules, and user bases further contribute to these spreads, creating arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders.

Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—typically moves this market sharply, especially for key players. Recent form, head-to-head history, and any tactical shifts announced before kickoff can also shift trader positioning. Weather conditions, venue factors, and late-breaking roster updates in the hours before the match often trigger repricing. Monitor official team announcements and credible sports media for updates that might change the perceived likelihood of each outcome.