TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 12:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Atlanta and St. Louis on July 10, 2026 will be evaluated based on the run differential between the two teams during the first 5 innings. Bettors can wager on whether one team will be ahead by more than a specified margin through 5 innings.
Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the first 5 innings of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 8:15 PM EDT. St. Louis outcomes resolve Yes if St. Louis leads by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 runs) after 5 innings. Atlanta outcomes resolve Yes if Atlanta leads by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 runs) after 5 innings. Each outcome is independent; if St. Louis leads by 2 runs after 5 innings, the outcome for St. Louis winning by more than 1.5 runs resolves Yes, while St. Louis winning by more than 2.5 runs resolves No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the collective beliefs of traders who have real money at stake. Prediction markets typically incorporate a broader range of information and can adjust more dynamically as new data emerges. For this market, comparing the odds you see here to major sportsbook spreads can reveal whether traders are pricing in factors that conventional oddsmakers may have overlooked or weighted differently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for contracts tied to specific spread outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, with each trade updating the market in real time. Participants can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, and the final price reflects the collective confidence of all traders at that moment. This transparent, auction-style pricing ensures that odds remain competitive and responsive to breaking information or shifting expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the opening five minutes of the game have concluded and the spread can be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual point differential during that initial period to the predicted spread. Resolution occurs automatically after the event is finalized and confirmed through standard sports reporting channels. Traders should monitor official game broadcasts and league records to track the final result.
Several factors can shift odds before this market closes. Injury reports or roster changes announced before game time may alter expectations for early momentum. Pregame analysis, expert commentary, and updated team statistics can influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions, travel delays, or other logistical factors affecting either team's readiness could also trigger price movement. Additionally, sharp bettors or institutional traders entering the market with large positions can create sudden swings. Monitoring sports news, team social media, and betting-industry commentary will help you stay informed of catalysts that might reshape the spread forecast.