TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the run differential between the two teams in the June 27, 2026 game. Bettors predict whether one team will win by a margin exceeding various run thresholds.
Resolution is determined by the final run differential in the game originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 9:05 PM EDT. San Francisco outcomes resolve to Yes if San Francisco wins by more than the specified margin (more than 3.5 runs, 2.5 runs, or 1.5 runs). Atlanta outcomes resolve to Yes if Atlanta wins by more than the specified margin (more than 1.5 runs, 2.5 runs, or 3.5 runs). The team with the higher final score wins; the difference between scores determines which spread outcomes resolve affirmatively.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets reflect trader consensus on true probability. This market's odds may lead or lag traditional sportsbook spreads depending on information flow and trader conviction. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value or where sharp money is positioning. Over time, prediction markets have shown competitive accuracy against professional oddsmakers, making them a useful reference point for understanding market sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order matching, where traders submit bids and asks on the spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform's automated system executes trades at the best available price, and the last traded price becomes the reference for the current odds display. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tight the bid-ask spread is and how quickly prices adjust to new information. As more traders participate, the market typically becomes more efficient at reflecting the true probability of the spread outcome.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the game concludes and the final score is official. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of the actual point differential between Atlanta and San Francisco. Resolution is straightforward: the spread is verified from authoritative sports data sources, and traders' positions settle based on whether the actual margin matches the predicted range. No further action is required from traders after the game ends.
Key injury announcements, roster changes, and team news can shift trader positioning significantly in this market. Weather conditions on game day, recent team performance trends, and public betting patterns at sportsbooks may also influence odds. Major upsets or unexpected developments in either team's season can trigger repricing as traders update their probability estimates. Media narratives and expert commentary can sway sentiment, especially if new analysis suggests the spread is mispriced. Monitor team statements and sports news closely, as late-breaking information often drives the sharpest moves before kickoff.