TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 10:17 PM EST
Kalshi
Two markets focus on which team will win the second half of a scheduled women's professional basketball game between Atlanta and New York. The outcomes depend solely on the performance during the second half of regulation time, excluding any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the team that scores the most points during the specified half of regulation time, excluding overtime. If both teams score equally, all team outcomes resolve to No and the Tie outcome resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days; if the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond this window, markets resolve at a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s immediately available to sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s not uncommon to see prediction market odds diverge from sportsbook odds, particularly in situations where there’s significant uncertainty or a strong narrative driving public opinion. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a team will win the second half. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders place orders, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities. Essentially, traders are acting as both market makers and informed speculators, collectively determining the odds based on their individual analyses and expectations. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the team leading at the end of the second half will be declared the winner. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of all contracts. Traders can expect a clear and timely determination of the result following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching strategies could significantly impact perceptions of each team’s chances. In-game performance during the first half, such as scoring trends or defensive adjustments, will also be closely watched by traders. Unexpected events, like foul trouble for key players or a shift in momentum, could lead to rapid price fluctuations. Public sentiment and media coverage can also play a role, especially if there’s a strong narrative developing around one of the teams. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.