TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Braves or Giants?

Volume:
$34,659

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 10:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,200
N/A
N/A
$12,503
Settled
Yes
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Atlanta wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,666
N/A
N/A
$12,200
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlanta Braves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,780
N/A
N/A
$4,622
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with resolution occurring immediately after the 5th inning concludes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically tautological (all outcomes resolve Yes), creating a fundamental mismatch with Polymarket's directional outcome markets. Additionally, the scheduled game dates differ between platforms (Jun 27 vs Jun 28), raising data integrity concerns.Hero tip: Do not trade these markets as if they are equivalent. Kalshi's market resolves Yes if the game completes, regardless of outcome. Polymarket's markets resolve to specific directional outcomes. Verify the correct game date with MLB.com before committing capital. Consider whether Kalshi's market is actually measuring game completion rather than competitive outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure where all three possible game outcomes (Atlanta win, San Francisco win, tie) resolve to Yes. This makes the market functionally equivalent to 'will the game be played' rather than 'who will win the first 5 innings'. Scheduled for Jun 27, 2026 at 9:05 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Three separate categorical markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Atlanta Braves (if Braves ahead after 5), San Francisco Giants (if Giants ahead after 5), and Draw (if tied after 5). Scheduled for Jun 28 at 4:05 PM ET. Includes explicit handling of postponements and cancellations.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for June 28 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team has the higher score at the end of the fifth inning in the game originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 9:05 PM EDT. The Atlanta outcome resolves to Yes if Atlanta has more runs than San Francisco after five innings. The San Francisco outcome resolves to Yes if San Francisco has more runs than Atlanta after five innings. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and both team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket aggregate genuine trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Prediction markets typically incorporate sharper, more specialized information because traders risk real capital on outcomes. For this matchup, comparing the current market prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal where public perception and informed traders disagree—a potential edge for informed bettors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rules, liquidity pools, and user demographics. Kalshi and Polymarket may attract traders with different risk tolerances, information sets, or time horizons, causing their prices to diverge even on the same underlying event. Platform-specific mechanics—such as order book depth, fee structures, and settlement procedures—can also influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. These differences create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both venues simultaneously, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, bullpen availability updates, and recent team performance trends in early-inning scoring. Weather conditions at game time—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly impact ball carry and offensive output in the first five frames. Injury reports or last-minute roster changes affecting star hitters or relief pitchers will likely trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, pre-game betting action on related markets and sportsbook line movements often precede prediction market shifts, giving attentive traders early signals of shifting sentiment before kickoff.