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2,693

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5

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Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Braves or Pirates?

Volume:
$62,476

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 8:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,153
N/A
N/A
$15,808
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Atlanta wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,939
N/A
N/A
$23,571
Settled
No
kalshi

Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,305
N/A
N/A
$11,810
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlanta Braves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in an MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 6:40 PM ET. Resolution depends on which team is ahead (or if tied) after exactly 5 complete innings of play.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket presents a single three-way categorical market with mutually exclusive outcomes, while Kalshi's presentation is ambiguous about whether it offers three separate binary markets or one three-way market. The underlying event logic is identical, but the market structure and resolution mechanics differ.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket as the canonical reference structure: exactly one of three outcomes (Braves lead, Pirates lead, or Tied) will resolve after the 5th inning concludes. If Kalshi markets are separate binaries, each resolves independently. If Kalshi is a single three-way market, its phrasing should be clarified to match Polymarket's mutual exclusivity language. Cross-platform arbitrage risk is low if both resolve to the same underlying event fact, but settlement mechanics may differ.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Single three-way categorical market with explicit mutual exclusivity. Resolves to exactly one of: Atlanta Braves (if leading after 5 innings), Pittsburgh Pirates (if leading after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Postponed games remain open until completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Primary source is official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus thereafter.
  • Kalshi: Three propositions listed sequentially without explicit mutual exclusivity framing. Appears to be three separate Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if its condition is met (Atlanta wins first 5, Pittsburgh wins first 5, or tie in first 5). No explicit handling of postponement or cancellation stated in provided data.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by comparing the score at the end of the first five innings of the Atlanta vs Pittsburgh game originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If Atlanta has more runs, the Atlanta outcome resolves Yes. If Pittsburgh has more runs, the Pittsburgh outcome resolves Yes. If both teams have equal runs, the Tie outcome resolves Yes and all team outcomes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin; prediction markets rely on trader consensus and real-money stakes to discover price. In this market, sportsbook lines may reflect sharp action and public betting patterns, while prediction market odds aggregate dispersed information from thousands of independent traders. Neither is inherently more accurate, but comparing the two often reveals where one side is undervalued relative to the other, creating potential edges for informed bettors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, all of which influence how prices converge. Polymarket may see heavier volume from one outcome, while Kalshi reflects a distinct user base with different risk appetite or information access. Funding rates, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific incentives also shape marginal pricing. These gaps typically narrow closer to resolution, but savvy traders monitor the spread in real time to identify temporary mispricings worth exploiting across both venues.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher health, and recent offensive form will drive early price movement as traders assess each team's five-inning strength. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and historical head-to-head performance in early innings also influence positioning. As game time nears, live betting action and sharp money entering the market can shift odds sharply. Once play begins, early inning runs, pitcher performance, and momentum swings will create real-time repricing opportunities. Monitor injury reports and pregame commentary for catalysts that reshape trader conviction before the first pitch.