TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 3:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the third quarter in an upcoming professional football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will dominate the quarter by a specific margin.
These markets evaluate various point spread thresholds for the third quarter of the Atlanta Falcons versus Pittsburgh Steelers game scheduled for September 13, 2026. Each market resolves based on whether the winning team in that quarter exceeds a specified point differential, ranging from over 1.5 points to over 10.5 points. All outcomes are determined solely by points scored during the third quarter, with no consideration given to the full game result or any other quarter's performance. The markets cover both possible winners (Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers) and multiple incremental spread thresholds, allowing for nuanced predictions of quarter dominance. Secondary rules clarify that only third-quarter points count, ensuring clarity in resolution regardless of overall game dynamics.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. These differences can arise from varying information access or differing interpretations of the same information. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of expectations for the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final score differential after the third quarter of the game between the ATL Falcons and PIT Steelers will be used to determine which side of the spread each team covered. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the ATL Falcons or PIT Steelers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any large-volume trades on Kalshi could indicate a shift in sentiment among traders and influence the price.