TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:18 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of a football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers, specifically analyzing how much one team might outscore the other in the second half of play. Each market represents a different point differential threshold that determines the result.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons exclusively during the second half of the game, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, ranging from narrow to substantial advantages for either team. If the Steelers win the second half by exceeding the specified margin, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered for that market; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Similarly, if the Falcons achieve the required margin of victory in the second half, the respective market resolves to 'Yes'. All markets are evaluated independently, allowing for multiple outcomes across different thresholds to be settled as 'Yes' or 'No' based on the actual point differential. The secondary rule consistently specifies that only points scored during the second half—excluding any overtime scoring—are counted toward determining the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe one team will cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially creating discrepancies with sportsbook offerings. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage or simply indicate differing perspectives on the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Steelers will win the second half by more than 6.5 points. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts indicating they believe the Steelers will cover, the price will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants and adjusts in real-time based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the second half of the Falcons versus Steelers game will be used to determine whether the Steelers covered the spread. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to 100 if the Steelers win by more than 6.5 points, and 0 if they do not. Traders will then receive or pay out the difference based on their positions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, could significantly shift market sentiment. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected scoring and therefore the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also cause fluctuations in the market price. Public perception, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also play a role.