TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 2:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. It focuses on the point differential between the two teams during that specific segment of play, offering various thresholds for victory margins.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on the point differential in the first quarter of the Atlanta Falcons versus Pittsburgh Steelers game scheduled for September 13, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the Steelers or Falcons to exceed in point difference to resolve as 'Yes'. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter, with no impact from subsequent quarters. The thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, providing varied levels of difficulty for each outcome. The resolution depends solely on the scoring disparity within that initial 15-minute period, making early-game performance the critical factor.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Early on, sportsbook odds might be more influenced by team reputations or pre-season expectations. As the game approaches, this market tends to incorporate more nuanced information, such as injury reports and late-breaking news, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast than traditional odds. It’s common to see convergence as kickoff nears.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the first quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, effectively forecasting the game's outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and informative view of expectations for this NFL matchup. The current price is shaped by supply and demand for contracts on either side of the spread.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual first quarter spread of the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. The market's outcome is determined by the actual game result, not by any subjective assessment or opinion.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Falcons or the Steelers would likely cause price movement. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also shift expectations. Major news stories impacting team morale or coaching decisions could also influence trading activity. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and lead to price adjustments as we approach the game on Sep 13, 2026.