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Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Athletics or Giants?

Volume:
$314,061

A's wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 5:09 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

A's wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91,481
N/A
N/A
$60,225
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Athletics

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$149,151
N/A
N/A
$111,870
Settled
No
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73,429
N/A
N/A
$43,335
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 3:45 PM EDT. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with separate binary and categorical outcomes offered across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary market definition is logically contradictory: all three possible outcomes (Athletics win, Giants win, tie) are mapped to Yes, making the contract unresolvable. Polymarket offers three separate categorical markets with mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is broken and will create settlement disputes. Use Polymarket's three categorical markets instead, which clearly separate Athletics, Giants, and Draw outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No structure with all three possible game outcomes (SF win, A's win, tie) resolving to Yes. This is a logical impossibility for a binary contract. Quote: 'If San Francisco wins... resolves to Yes. If A's wins... resolves to Yes. If A's and San Francisco tie... resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate categorical markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Athletics (if A's ahead after 5 innings), San Francisco Giants (if Giants ahead after 5 innings), and Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Explicit handling of postponement and cancellation. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Athletics if... Giants if... Draw if the game is tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for June 25 at 3:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first five innings of the A's vs San Francisco game originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 3:45 PM EDT. The A's outcome resolves Yes if Oakland leads after five innings. The San Francisco outcome resolves Yes if the Giants lead after five innings. The Tie outcome resolves Yes if both teams have scored an equal number of runs at the end of five innings; when a tie occurs, only the Tie outcome resolves Yes while all team outcomes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on a different mechanism than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting lines, traders themselves determine prices through supply and demand, often reflecting sharper, crowd-sourced analysis. Sportsbooks typically build in margins and manage liability across many bets, whereas prediction markets reward accurate forecasting directly. This market's odds may diverge from sportsbook spreads because traders are focused purely on the five-inning outcome, not the full game, and because the trader base may weight certain factors—bullpen availability, early momentum, weather—differently than oddsmakers do.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Kalshi and Polymarket use distinct market-making models and fee structures, which can cause prices to diverge even on identical outcomes. Timing differences in when large trades execute, variations in how each platform's user base interprets early-inning dynamics, and differences in available information at any given moment all contribute to price gaps. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's consensus they find more credible.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, bullpen injury reports, and weather forecasts that might favor one team's style of play. Lineup changes or late scratches can shift early-inning dynamics significantly. Recent form, head-to-head records in early-inning performance, and any trades or roster moves closer to game day will likely trigger repricing. Real-time updates during the game—early runs, pitching changes, or momentum swings in the first few innings—will drive final price adjustments right up until the fifth inning concludes.