TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings of Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers?

Volume:
$194,486

Detroit wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 8:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$169,988
N/A
N/A
$126,445
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

A's wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,437
N/A
N/A
$9,331
Settled
No
polymarket

Athletics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,837
N/A
N/A
$5,545
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers scheduled for July 8-9, 2026. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead, or if the game is tied, after the completion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria are logically contradictory, resolving to Yes regardless of outcome (Athletics win, Tigers win, or tie all trigger Yes). Additionally, the scheduled game dates differ between platforms (July 8 vs July 9, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi—the market structure is unresolvable. Use Polymarket only, which has mutually exclusive outcomes (Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Draw). Confirm the actual game date and time on MLB.com before placing any bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three possible outcomes (Athletics win, Tigers win, tie) resolve to Yes. This is a logical contradiction that makes the market unresolvable. Quote: 'If A's wins...then resolves to Yes. If Detroit wins...then resolves to Yes. If A's and Detroit tie...then resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive outcomes with clear resolution: Athletics (if Athletics leading after 5 innings), Detroit Tigers (if Tigers leading after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied). Includes explicit handling of postponements and cancellations. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Athletics if...winning...Detroit Tigers if...winning...Draw if...tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 9 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by comparing the score at the end of the first five innings of the A's vs Detroit game originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If the A's have more runs, the A's outcome resolves Yes. If Detroit has more runs, the Detroit outcome resolves Yes. If both teams have equal runs, the Tie outcome resolves Yes and all team outcomes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on peer-to-peer trading, where odds emerge from live supply and demand rather than a sportsbook's fixed lines. This market reflects real-time trader conviction without the margin built into traditional sportsbooks. Prediction market prices often move faster in response to breaking news—injuries, weather, lineup changes—because traders profit directly from accuracy. Sportsbooks, by contrast, adjust lines to balance action and protect their margin. For this specific matchup, comparing the implied probabilities here to your preferred sportsbook's first-five-innings prop can reveal value opportunities if the two diverge meaningfully.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Kalshi and Polymarket use distinct order-matching engines and may have different user bases with varying risk appetites or information access. Regulatory frameworks and contract specifications also differ slightly between platforms, sometimes leading one to price the outcome more aggressively than the other. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but gaps can persist if liquidity is thin on one side. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify the sharpest odds before placing your prediction.

Starting lineups and bullpen availability are primary movers—a key injury or unexpected roster change can shift odds significantly. Weather conditions at game time, such as wind direction or temperature affecting ball carry, influence early-inning scoring potential. Umpire assignments and recent performance trends of both teams' starting pitchers also drive trader positioning. Breaking news about player health, last-minute lineup adjustments, or unusual betting action on external sportsbooks can trigger rapid repricing. Monitor team news feeds and social media in the hours before first pitch; even small developments can move this market as traders reassess the five-inning edge.