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406,019

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2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

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61%

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Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings between Athletics and Detroit Tigers?

Volume:
$66,348

Detroit wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 8:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Detroit wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$54,522
N/A
N/A
$49,262
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Detroit Tigers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

A's wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,815
N/A
N/A
$5,722
Settled
No
polymarket

Athletics

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,134
N/A
N/A
$2,471
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers. Markets across platforms track which team is winning (or if tied) at the end of the 5th inning, with resolution dependent on the official game score at that checkpoint.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (A's win, Detroit win, tie) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Additionally, the scheduled game dates differ between platforms (Jul 7 vs Jul 8, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until the rules are corrected. The market as written cannot be resolved because every possible outcome is marked Yes. Polymarket's three-outcome structure is logically consistent. Confirm the actual game date and time with MLB.com before placing any bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three possible outcomes (A's win, Detroit win, tie in first 5 innings) are stated to resolve to Yes. This is a logical contradiction. Game date: Jul 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Key quote: 'If A's wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Detroit wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If A's and Detroit tie...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate mutually exclusive outcomes: Athletics (if winning after 5 innings), Detroit Tigers (if winning after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied). Includes clear edge case handling for postponement and cancellation. Game date: July 8 at 6:40 PM ET. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Athletics if the Athletics is winning...Detroit Tigers if the Detroit Tigers is winning...Draw if the game is tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 5 innings of the A's vs Detroit professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If the A's leads after 5 innings, the A's outcome resolves to Yes. If Detroit leads after 5 innings, the Detroit outcome resolves to Yes. If the score is tied after 5 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and both team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook margins. Traders directly set odds by buying and selling shares, eliminating the house vigorish typical of traditional sportsbooks. This mechanism often produces tighter, more efficient pricing closer to true probability, especially as volume accumulates. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injuries, while prediction markets reflect longer-term consensus. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks reveals whether professional bettors and casual traders are aligned on the first five innings outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket and Kalshi may have varying fee structures, user interfaces, and marketing reach, causing price discovery to lag between them. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform prices the outcome significantly higher or lower than the other. Additionally, the exact wording of each platform's outcome definition—whether emphasizing Detroit or the Athletics, or phrasing the condition slightly differently—can subtly influence how traders interpret and price the event, even though the underlying game outcome is identical.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, injury updates to star players, and recent team performance trends heading into the game. Weather conditions—particularly wind direction and temperature—can significantly affect early-inning scoring. Lineup changes, bullpen availability, and rest patterns for key relievers often shift trader sentiment in the final days before first pitch. Breaking news about trades, roster moves, or unexpected absences can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, if one team enters the game on a hot or cold streak, traders may adjust their five-inning projections accordingly, as early-game momentum frequently carries predictive weight.