TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Athletics vs Chicago White Sox?

Volume:
$7,113,188

Chicago WS

 - Kalshi

Chicago WS - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 4:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago WS

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,804,315
N/A
N/A
$2,089,396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

A's

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,308,188
N/A
N/A
$1,314,666
Settled
No
polymarket

Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$698,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,622
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Intro

This event group tracks two MLB prediction markets for the Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox game scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 2:10 PM EDT: one on the game winner and one on whether a run will be scored in the first inning. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 10.0% probability for the over 1.5 runs outcome and 0.0% for the Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox winner market. Both markets will resolve according to official MLB records following the conclusion of the game on July 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market has a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (A's win and White Sox win) are mapped to the same resolution value (Yes), making the market mathematically unresolvable and creating a settlement integrity failure.Hero tip: Avoid the Kalshi market until the specification is corrected. Use Polymarket as the authoritative reference for the game winner market. For the first-inning run market on Polymarket, resolution is straightforward and consistent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Clean binary structure with three explicit outcomes: Athletics win, White Sox win, or 50-50 split (tie/cancellation). Resolution source is official MLB final statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. This applies to both the game winner and first-inning run markets.
  • Kalshi: Critical specification error: both A's win and White Sox win resolve to Yes, with no defined No outcome. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot differentiate between the two possible game results, making settlement impossible.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 11 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event covers the Oakland Athletics vs Chicago White Sox professional baseball game scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 2:10 PM EDT. Resolution depends on which team wins the game. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks aim to balance action and lock in profit margins, often adjusting lines to manage liability rather than reflect true probability. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on trader capital and reputational skin-in-the-game, which can produce sharper, less biased estimates. This market's pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge from traditional sportsbook lines, especially as game time approaches and new data emerges. Comparing both sources helps you identify value and understand where consensus truly lies.

On Polymarket, traders set odds through continuous order-book mechanics, while Kalshi uses an automated market maker model, each producing different price discovery dynamics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts high-volume crypto-native traders, whereas Kalshi draws regulated derivatives participants, leading to distinct liquidity pools and risk appetites. Timing lags, fee structures, and user demographics also drive wedges between platforms. These gaps typically narrow as the event date approaches, but they create arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, weather conditions, and recent team performance trends. Bullpen availability, home-field advantage dynamics, and head-to-head historical matchups all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about player availability or unexpected roster moves can trigger sharp repricing across both platforms within minutes. Media coverage, expert commentary, and live pregame updates also shift sentiment. Monitor team social media, official league communications, and sportsbook line movements for early signals that may not yet be reflected in prediction market prices.