TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 11:15 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Athletic Club and São Bernardo FC, scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletic Club" if Athletic Club are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "São Bernardo FC" if São Bernardo FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Athletic Club and São Bernardo FC, scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletic Club" if Athletic Club are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "São Bernardo FC" if São Bernardo FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they operate under different incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one are priced by traders seeking profit, making them responsive to new information and sentiment. Prediction markets frequently outperform traditional oddsmakers on binary outcomes because traders have direct financial exposure to accuracy. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal where the crowd sees value or mispricing.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, and the price of each share reflects the current implied probability. As more capital flows into one outcome, its price rises and the competing outcome's price falls, ensuring the market stays balanced and responsive to new information or changing expectations about the match.
This market resolves around Jul 23, 2026, once the Athletic Club versus São Bernardo FC match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is determined by which team scores the opening goal, confirmed against credible public sources including official match records and sports data providers. Traders holding positions on the correct team will receive their payout once the result is finalized and the market settles automatically.
Team news such as injuries to key strikers or defensive players can shift odds significantly, as can lineup announcements closer to kickoff. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage all influence trader expectations about which side is more likely to strike first. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and tactical adjustments revealed in pre-match analysis may also trigger price movements. As the match date approaches, any breaking developments about player availability or team strategy will likely drive volatility in this market.