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$134.1b

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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

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2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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61%

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Athletic Club vs. São Bernardo FC
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Athletic Club vs. São Bernardo FC?

Volume:
$482,728

Athletic Club Sjdr

 - Kalshi

Athletic Club Sjdr - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 8:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Athletic Club Sjdr

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$184,851
N/A
N/A
$119,778
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Athletic Club

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$47,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sao Bernardo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$131,069
N/A
N/A
$88,970
Settled
No
polymarket

São Bernardo FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,317
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$86,520
N/A
N/A
$43,495
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Athletic Club vs. São Bernardo FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Athletic Club will win their Brazilian Série B match against São Bernardo FC. The aggregated consensus probability for Athletic Club to win stands at 100.0%, with São Bernardo FC at 0.1%, drawing data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and resolution governed by the official CBF Serie B rules. Watch the match on July 23, 2026, as this is the event date that will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure description is ambiguous and appears to conflate three independent binary outcomes into a single affirmative resolution. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are logically coherent and mutually exclusive.Hero tip: On Polymarket, treat the three markets as a clean mutually exclusive set: exactly one will resolve Yes. On Kalshi, assume the platform intends the same logic (one outcome per match) but the description is poorly worded. Request clarification from Kalshi before trading. If Kalshi truly intends all three to resolve Yes simultaneously, the market is unresolvable and should be flagged for cancellation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Athletic Club Win resolves Yes only if Athletic Club wins; Draw resolves Yes only if match ends in a draw; São Bernardo Win resolves Yes only if São Bernardo wins. Cancellation with no makeup resolves Athletic Club Win and São Bernardo Win to No, but Draw to Yes. Primary source: CBF official statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if CBF delayed.
  • Kalshi: Three markets described as: 'If [Athletic Club wins/Sao Bernardo wins/Tie occurs]... then the market resolves to Yes.' The wording suggests all three markets would simultaneously resolve Yes on any match result, which is logically impossible. Likely intent is the same as Polymarket (one outcome per match), but the market description is ambiguous and creates settlement risk.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Thursday, July 23, 2026 between Athletic Club and São Bernardo FC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final score of the Athletic Club Sjdr vs Sao Bernardo Brasileiro Serie B match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Each outcome—Athletic Club Sjdr win, Sao Bernardo win, or tie—resolves to Yes if that result occurs. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Athletic Club vs. São Bernardo FC match. Traders on both venues are pricing the outcome of this fixture, with real-time odds reflecting the collective assessment of match probabilities. The cross-platform view lets you compare how each venue's community is positioning ahead of kickoff, revealing consensus strength or divergence in expectations. Combined volume and price movements across both platforms provide a comprehensive snapshot of where smart money is flowing on this event.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover true probability. This market's odds on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing the two can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market odds carry their own liquidity and participant-base considerations.

Key catalysts include team lineups, injury announcements, and recent form trends for both sides. Betting syndicates and sharp money often signal conviction through large trades, which can shift odds rapidly. Weather conditions, venue factors, and any last-minute tactical shifts reported by credible sources will influence trader positioning. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can also trigger repricing, especially if new information emerges about player availability or match conditions. Monitor official team announcements and sports news closely, as this market reacts swiftly to material developments.