TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista
Description
This event group covers the professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match between Associação Chapecoense de Futebol and SC Corinthians Paulista scheduled for March 19, 2026. Markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Chapecoense win, a Corinthians win, or a draw, all evaluated within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties). Resolution depends on the official match result as published by the CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) or credible consensus reporting if official statistics are delayed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable. All three Kalshi markets (Tie, Corinthians win, Chapecoense win) resolve to YES for any outcome, making it impossible to determine which market should actually settle YES. Polymarket provides three mutually exclusive, well-defined markets (Corinthians win, Chapecoense win, Draw) that correctly partition all possible outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi markets in this group — they contain a critical logical flaw that makes settlement ambiguous. Polymarket's three markets are properly structured and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi before the match occurs, as settlement may be disputed or reversed.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate markets, each resolving YES if its named outcome occurs (Tie, Corinthians win, or Chapecoense win). This creates a logical contradiction because exactly one of these three outcomes must occur, meaning all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously. The rules state 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Corinthians wins... then the market resolves to Yes', and 'If Chapecoense wins... then the market resolves to Yes' — but only one outcome is possible per match, yet all three markets are structured as independent YES/NO resolutions rather than as a single three-way outcome market.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound resolution logic: Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive markets (Corinthians win, Chapecoense win, Draw) that partition all possible match outcomes. Each market resolves YES or NO based on whether its specific outcome occurs, with exactly one market resolving YES per match. The rules state 'If SC Corinthians Paulista wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and similar for Chapecoense and Draw, ensuring logical consistency and resolvability.
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