TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 12:29 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the June 27, 2026 game between the A's and Los Angeles Angels. Bettors predict whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more.
Resolution is determined by the final run differential in the A's vs Los Angeles A professional baseball game scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 9:38 PM EDT. Los Angeles A outcomes resolve to Yes if that team wins by more than 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs respectively. A's outcomes resolve to Yes if Oakland wins by more than 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs respectively. The winning margin is calculated as the absolute difference between the final scores, with the official final score as recorded by Major League Baseball determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set spreads to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate distributed trader beliefs in real time. This market's odds may lead or lag sportsbook lines depending on information flow and trader positioning. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd on Kalshi sees value relative to conventional oddsmakers, though both should be evaluated independently for decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust accordingly. Your position's value fluctuates with the market price until resolution, and you can exit at any time by selling your shares at the prevailing market rate.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the game concludes and the final spread outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether Oakland covers the spread against Los Angeles—that is, whether the final margin of victory aligns with the specified spread. Kalshi will confirm the outcome based on official game results and settle all positions accordingly. Until that point, the market remains open for trading.
Key catalysts for this market include injury announcements, lineup changes, and recent team performance trends leading up to game day. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and rest patterns can also shift trader expectations about the spread. Breaking news regarding player availability or coaching decisions often triggers sharp repricing. As the game approaches, late-breaking information—such as last-minute roster moves or public betting action—may accelerate volatility. Real-time game flow and momentum swings during the contest itself will drive final price discovery before settlement.