TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 7, 9:31 PM EST
Kalshi
The starting pitchers' performance in the Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers game on July 7, 2026 will be evaluated based on outs recorded. An out is recorded when a pitcher retires a batter through strikeout, ground out, fly out, or other means.
Settlement requires that the pitcher is a starting pitcher and records at least one pitch. If either pitcher is scratched or does not start the game, that pitcher's market resolves to fair market price. Relief appearances do not count toward outs recorded. Only starting pitchers who throw at least one pitch will have their performance settled based on actual outs recorded during the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and audiences. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds reflect what participants actually believe will happen, unfiltered by bookmaker margins. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional oddsmakers or decentralized traders are pricing in different information about the A's and Detroit matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for contracts tied to specific outs-recorded outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders profit or lose based on whether their prediction matches the final verified count, creating strong incentives for accurate pricing. The continuous auction format means prices adjust instantly as new information emerges, whether from injury reports, lineup changes, or pre-game analysis.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once the A's versus Detroit game concludes and the final out count is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the total number of outs officially recorded during the contest, confirmed through standard baseball record-keeping. Resolution occurs shortly after game completion, allowing traders to settle positions and claim winnings based on their predictions.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury updates to star players, bullpen availability, and weather forecasts that might affect game pace and pitcher performance. Lineup changes or managerial decisions revealed before first pitch can shift expectations around how many outs will be recorded. Trading volume and sentiment shifts on Kalshi itself often accelerate as game time nears, reflecting last-minute information and sharp money positioning on this outcome.