TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC
Volume:
$839,929
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the FA Cup match between Arsenal FC and Wigan Athletic FC scheduled for February 15, 2026. Three prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are tracking the outcome: whether Wigan wins, whether Arsenal wins, and whether the match ends in a draw, all measured within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms measure the same event (Arsenal vs Wigan, FA Cup, February 15, 2026) within the same time window (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties), with consistent outcome definitions across Polymarket and Kalshi markets.
Primary resolution logic:
Official FA Cup records from The FA (thefa.com) and professional match statisticsCore resolution logic:
- Match outcome is determined by goals scored within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only
- Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from resolution
- Three mutually exclusive outcomes: Arsenal victory, Wigan victory, or draw (0-0 or equal goals)
- If match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed and official result is recorded
- If match is canceled with no rescheduled make-up game: Polymarket draw market resolves Yes, Polymarket win markets resolve No; Kalshi market structure resolves Yes for any outcome (technical edge case)
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is completed. Resolution occurs only after the rescheduled match is played and the official result is recorded.
- Match Cancellation Without Make-Up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes (per explicit cancellation clause), while Polymarket's Arsenal and Wigan win markets resolve No. Kalshi's market structure (which resolves Yes for any outcome) creates an inconsistency in this scenario.
- Extra Time or Penalties: If the match reaches extra time or a penalty shootout, only the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time is used for resolution. Goals scored in extra time or penalty outcomes are not counted.
- Abandoned Match: If the match is abandoned before 90 minutes plus stoppage time is completed, the match is treated as incomplete and markets remain open pending rescheduling or official FA determination.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the match concludes and the official FA Cup result is published, typically within 1-2 hours of full-time whistle. If the match is postponed, resolution is deferred to the rescheduled date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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