TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 1:47 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Arsenal FC and Chelsea FC, scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Chelsea FC" if Chelsea FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Arsenal FC and Chelsea FC, scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). This market will resolve to "Chelsea FC" if Chelsea FC are the first to score in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time). If neither team scores in the first half (first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time), this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to goals scored within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially when considering information not readily captured by bookmakers. However, sportsbook odds are influenced by factors like house edge and marketing promotions, which can create discrepancies. For this market, it’s common to see initial differences between the two, but as the event approaches, the prediction market odds often converge towards what many believe is the true probability of each outcome. It's important to note that these are distinct markets with different participants and motivations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether Arsenal or Chelsea will score first in the first half. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each team taking the early lead. This creates a transparent and efficient price discovery process.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on which team—Arsenal or Chelsea—scores the first goal during the first half of the match. The official match records will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. Any goals scored during extra time or a penalty shootout will not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. The outcome will be determined by the official game statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Arsenal or Chelsea would likely cause shifts in the odds. Tactical announcements from either manager, such as confirmed starting lineups or changes in formation, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected football commentators, could also contribute to price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of each team’s chances of scoring first in the first half has the potential to move this market.