TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 11:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will lead after the first quarter of play in an upcoming college football game between Arkansas and Utah. It focuses solely on the scoring dynamics of the opening quarter, ignoring the rest of the game’s outcome. The result depends on whether Utah, Arkansas, or neither team (in case of a tie) scores more points in that initial segment.
If Utah wins the 1st quarter of the Arkansas vs Utah college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arkansas wins the 1st quarter of the Arkansas vs Utah college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither team wins the 1st quarter of the Arkansas vs Utah college football game originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds will adjust. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly and efficiently in response to new data than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their chances of winning the first quarter. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information and shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official result of which team won the first quarter of the Arkansas vs Utah game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics and scorekeeping, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all traders. The platform will then distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the first quarter winner.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting lineups for either Arkansas or Utah would likely cause price movement. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the game and shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence how traders assess the probability of each team winning the first quarter. Public perception and analyst predictions can also contribute to shifts in this market.