TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Texas State Bobcats (W)
Volume:
$18,062
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between Arkansas State Red Wolves and Texas State Bobcats scheduled for February 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Markets across platforms are betting on the binary outcome: which team wins the game.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Texas St. wins OR Arkansas St. wins) resolve to YES, making the market non-predictive and unresolvable. Polymarket correctly implements binary winner-take-all logic.Hero Tip:
This is a critical data integrity failure on Kalshi. Do not trade on Kalshi's version. Use Polymarket exclusively, which correctly resolves to the actual game winner with standard binary logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Correct binary resolution: Arkansas State Red Wolves win → resolves to 'Arkansas State Red Wolves'; Texas State Bobcats win → resolves to 'Texas State Bobcats'. Includes standard edge cases: postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50; overtime included in final score.
- Kalshi: Logically broken: 'If Texas St. wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Arkansas St. wins...resolves to Yes.' Both outcomes map to the same resolution (YES), creating a guaranteed YES regardless of game result. This violates fundamental prediction market logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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