TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for TCU or Arkansas State in the second half of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during the second half, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Arkansas St. vs TCU college football game scheduled for Sep 19, 2026. For markets where TCU is the designated winner, resolution occurs if TCU's second-half point differential exceeds the specified threshold. Conversely, markets designating Arkansas St. as the winner resolve if Arkansas St. achieves the required point differential. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the postponement. The markets cover a range of point differentials, allowing participants to speculate on varying degrees of dominance by either team in the second half.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated predictions of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders who believe the market has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and trading activity, providing a real-time estimate of the expected outcome. The current price indicates what traders believe is the most likely second-half spread.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Arkansas State versus TCU game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting a spread that matches the actual result. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and data sources, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they impact the style of play, could also shift the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a shift in sentiment, potentially causing the price to move rapidly.