TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Arizona and Tampa Bay on June 26, 2026 will be evaluated based on individual team run totals. Bettors can wager on whether Tampa Bay or Arizona will each score above various run thresholds during the game.
Resolution is determined by the individual run totals scored by Tampa Bay and Arizona in the professional baseball game scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Tampa Bay outcomes resolve to Yes when the team scores at or above specified thresholds (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 runs), corresponding to over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 run lines respectively. Arizona outcomes similarly resolve to Yes when the team scores at or above specified thresholds (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 runs), corresponding to over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 run lines respectively. The final official score as recorded by Major League Baseball determines each team's outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different purposes and operate under different constraints. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. This market's odds represent what thousands of independent traders are willing to stake real money on, making them a distinct signal from traditional sports betting lines. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential value opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific team total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the balance between buyers and sellers at any moment, with shares typically ranging from $0 to $1. As new information surfaces—injury reports, weather updates, or pre-game analysis—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to shift in real time and creating opportunities for those who spot mispricings before the broader market corrects.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the Arizona vs Tampa Bay game concludes and the final combined team total is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Until that point, traders can continue buying and selling shares as odds fluctuate based on incoming news, betting trends, and real-time game developments. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the final whistle.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Key player injuries or unexpected roster changes for either team will likely trigger sharp moves, as will weather forecasts if conditions favor high or low-scoring play. Pregame betting action and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks often precedes prediction market adjustments. Team news, coaching decisions, and public sentiment shifts can also influence trader positioning. Real-time game flow—early scoring pace, defensive adjustments, and momentum swings—will drive the most dramatic price changes as the event unfolds.