TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they throw. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will reach certain benchmarks for scoring passes during the match.
These markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns thrown by specified quarterbacks in the Arizona vs San Francisco Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. For each market, if the named quarterback records the specified number of passing touchdowns or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether any play is nullified by penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases where a backup or substitute quarterback might briefly enter the game without attempting a pass.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines that are set by analysts. Sportsbooks often incorporate factors like public perception and team biases into their initial odds, while this market allows traders to weigh information and adjust prices based on their own analysis. Over time, the prices in this market may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and both sides refine their assessments of the likely outcome. However, discrepancies can persist due to differing motivations and information access.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectations. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the available contracts at different price points, providing insight into the level of demand and supply for each outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Arizona versus San Francisco game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Arizona or San Francisco teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running offenses, could also shift trader sentiment. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could cause the market to reprice. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can indicate informed activity and trigger further price adjustments.